Forecasting of financial equilibrium of Ukraine's metallurgical enterprises

Issue: №9/1, 2019

Introduction. Ukraine needs to accelerate the formation of some qualitatively new model of economic management, capable of ensuring the achievement of individual financial equilibrium by producers as a basis for macroeconomic stability and population well-being. The realization of this task involves the development of effective tools for managing enterprises financial equilibrium. The purpose of the article is to create an economic and mathematical model for forecasting the financial equilibrium of metallurgical enterprises. Results. The integral indicator for the complex estimation of the state of enterprise financial equilibrium is offered. It is the financial equilibrium stability index. It allows you to estimate the dynamics of enterprise financial equilibrium over time. Index composition comprehensively covers indicators of enterprise financial condition and its economic activity. On this basis, the tools of express analysis of the equilibrium financial position of the enterprise were improved. Using mathematical gnostic, the economic and mathematical model was developed to predict financial equilibrium stability index of metallurgical enterprises in Ukraine. This model expanded the set of forecasting tools used by the financial management of any enterprise to assess its financial equilibrium. The model is unique on the principle of construction, because it is based on the dynamics of indicators of the financial condition of the enterprise, which form its financial equilibrium. Conclusion. The results of the forecasting of metallurgical enterprises financial equilibrium improve the completeness and quality of the information base for managerial decision making. The proposals are aimed at overcoming the objective causes of the crisis in native metallurgy. They are: fiscal differentiation, cooperation of science and production, use of diplomatic channels to expand the export of metallurgical products, development of private-public partnership to restore the financial equilibrium of metallurgical enterprises in Ukraine. References 1. Zvieriakov M.I. Theoretical paradigm for sustainable development and Ukrainian realities. Ekonomika Ukrainy. 2018. №10. pp. 10-31 (in Ukrainian). 2. Alvarez F., Jermann J.U. Efficiency, equilibrium, and asset pricing with risk of default. Econometrica. 2000. № 4. Vol. 68. pp. 775-797. 3. Belolipetskiy V.G. Financial equilibrium in the conditions of market transformation of the Russian economy: dis. ... doctor ekon. sciences: 08.00.10, 08.00.05 / Moscow state university. Moscowa, 2002. 563 p. (in Russian). 4. Bisin A., Gottardi P., Ruta G. Equilibrium corporate finance and intermediation. Cambridge: National bureau of economic research, 2014. 45 p. 5. Blank I.A. Enterprise financial strategy. Kyiv: Elga, Nika-Tsentr, 2004. 720 p. (in Russian). 6. Kostyrko L.A. Diagnosis of enterprise financial and economic sustainability potential: monography; Kharkiv: Faktor, 2008. 336 p. (in Ukrainian). 7. Halchynskyi A.S. Economic methodology. Update logic. Kyiv: «ADEF-Ukraina», 2010. 572 p. (in Ukrainian). 8. Gudz T.P. External factors impact on the Ukrainian metallurgical enterprises financial equilibrium. Economic and Law Paradigm of Modern Societ. 2018. Issue 1. pp. 7-14. 9. Issuers’ financial statements. URL: http://www.smida. gov.ua/ (data zvernennia: 01.08.2019). (in Ukrainian). 10. Economic statistics of Ukraine. URL: http://www.ukrstat. gov.ua/ (data zvernennia 01.08.2019). (in Ukrainian). 11. Kovanic P., Humber M. The economics of information (Mathematical gnostics for data analysis). Czech Republic. Free Software Foundation, 2009. 704 p. 12. Hudz T.P. Theory and methodology of enterprise financial equilibrium formation: monography. Poltava: PUET, 2018. 463 p. (in Ukrainian).

Keywords : financial equilibrium, stability index, economic and mathematical model, metallurgical enterprises

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