Issue: № 8, 2025
Doi: https://doi.org/10.37634/efp.2025.8.9
This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the significant impact of unlawful vehicle circulation on the overall criminogenic situation and road safety indicators in Ukraine. The research is based on a thorough examination of current statistical data obtained from law enforcement agencies, customs services, and national road traffic accident statistics from 2020 to 2025, supplemented by elements of prognostic assessment. The applied retrospective and prognostic analysis unequivocally demonstrates a stable increase in the volume of illegal cross-border movement of vehicles and their subsequent operation within the national legal framework. It has been revealed that unregistered vehicles, imported bypassing established procedures, demonstrate a significantly higher probability of involvement in road traffic accidents than officially registered ones, approximately 2.5 times increasing their risk of being involved. This tendency is primarily explained by their often inadequate technical condition, lack of proper official registration, and failure to undergo mandatory technical inspections. The paper comprehensively examines the key mechanisms and schemes of illegal car importation and the wide range of socio-economic and criminogenic consequences of this phenomenon. These include significant revenue shortfalls for the state budget, disruption of fair competition principles in the market, and an increased threat to the life and health of road users. The research results demonstrate a direct correlation between the intensity of smuggling activities and the rise in road accident rates. The scientific novelty of the work lies in developing a comprehensive approach to assessing the causal impact of vehicle smuggling, which organically integrates legal, economic, and social aspects of the problem, as well as in presenting specific quantitative indicators of its scale. The practical value of this study lies in formulating substantiated, empirically confirmed recommendations aimed at improving mechanisms for countering vehicle smuggling and systematically enhancing road safety levels in Ukraine, which includes proposals for improving the legislative framework, strengthening international and inter-agency cooperation, and implementing innovative control technologies.
Keywords : vehicle smuggling, road safety, criminogenic situation, road traffic accidents, retrospective analysis, prognostic analysis, legal aspects, international cooperation, socio-economic consequences, law enforcement agencies, customs services, illegal movement, legislative framework
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